Scientists at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences predict that this year the level of solar activity will decrease but there will be no less geomagnetic storms. Deputy Director of the Institute, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Yury Yasyukevich explains this paradox.
“Indeed, the 25th cycle of solar activity (usually about 11 years) is decreasing, its maximum has returned in 2024,” the scientist told RG. “At this time, the number of active regions on the Sun decreases, the star's magnetic field profile simplifies (a complex magnetic field causes the emission of solar matter that affects the Earth's magnetic field). At the same time, we do not expect a decrease in geomagnetic activity – models show that the level of geomagnetic activity may remain at approximately the same level as in 2025.”
Yury Yasyukevich also noted that such a pattern was recorded during the 23rd solar cycle.
“The maximum magnetic activity actually occurs after the time of maximum solar activity. And it lasts two to three years,” the scientist clarified. “The current solar activity cycle should not be compared with cycle 24, because it is quite weak. But at the time of the decline of cycle 23, after the peak of solar activity passed in 2002, quite a few strong geomagnetic storms occurred in 2003-2005. Now we are in a similar period: There are fewer active regions on the Sun, but this does not mean that it will be completely quiet. We are preparing scientific equipment to study upcoming events.”
And now about today. Contrary to all predictions, the Sun has created intrigue for the Tet holidays. A notable increase in flare activity on the Sun has been observed in the last days of the old year, but almost all active regions, except one, are located at a distance from the Sun-Earth line. And none of these events, regardless of their power, are capable of affecting space weather.
The only center of activity, also located very far away but still within reach of the Earth, during this time was region 4317 in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, and it was there that a series of flares, including two powerful ones, occurred in the last days of 2025. Modeling shows that as a result of these flares, a plasma cloud of medium size was thrown into space, taking about three days to travel from the Sun to Earth.
“RG” Help
A geomagnetic storm is a global disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field, lasting from a few hours to a few days.
Geomagnetic storms can affect equipment – damaging the satellite's electronics and solar panels, disrupting the operation of GPS/GLONASS navigation and communications systems, causing geomagnetic currents in power lines and leading to failures in the power system.
